Murray’s Margin of Error

Patrick Murray is the founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. According to their website, “The Monmouth University Polling Institute has become a premier independent survey research center known for its in-depth tracking of public policy and quality of life issues.”

Murray is a frequent media commentator on politics and public opinion---in fact, one of the folks that PolitickerNJ.com asked the opinion of each week to see which gubernatorial candidate “Won The Week”. PolitickerNJ.com named him one of 14 People to Watch in New Jersey Politics in 2009. He’s got a fancy looking website, with all sorts of numbers and names, graphs and graphics, statistics and such. Polling Institute director Patrick Murray appears regularly on One-on-One with Steve Adubato, and is a frequent guest on all the shows that cover NJ political scene.

Furthermore, according to their website, “The Monmouth University Poll’s standard methodology utilizes a random digit dial (RDD) ‘probability’ sampling design to select survey participants. All telephone exchanges (i.e., area code and first three digits of the phone number) that reach a household are programmed into a computer…after interviewing is complete, the sample is ‘weighted’ to correct for the fact that some respondents are harder to reach than others…. The Monmouth University Poll either tracks or adjusts for geography, gender, race, age, and education to comport with current U.S. census figures of the adult population. This weighting ensures that findings from a sample can be generalized to the full target population.”

One would think that Mr. Murray could predict anything with extreme accuracy, given all the fancy degrees, computers, and statistics training.

But wait, there is this catch-all disclaimer on all the surveys: “All surveys are subject to ‘sampling error’ ”----you know, that “plus or minus” number at the end of the poll that tells you just how much they could be off by. “This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%” or so is what you’ll hear.

Now, my background---I am just an old, bald, overweight comedian from Brooklyn, with no fancy statistics degree. I don’t have an extravagant office at Monmouth University. I am not on NJN or ‘One on One with Steve Adubato’ each week. I was not named one of PolitickerNJ’s ‘most important’ anything last year or this year. And the same will most likely be the case for next year.

My methods for predicting the results of a contest between two (or more) does not require me to spend hours and hours bothering people of all ages by phone at dinner time, and then weighting the results ‘cause I could not get enough of one type of folk or another.

I just go by my instincts. That’s right—from the gut. My keen insight. My unique sixth sense. And that insight told me the Yanks in Six.

With all his fancy training, stats, and phone calls—what was Murray’s prediction?

That the Phillies repeat.

I guess that would be a margin of error of ---“plus or minus 100%” percent.

“I was looking at the World Series through (Phillies)red-colored glasses,” opined Mr. Murray, paying off on our bet. The result: one hundred dollars from his pocket to the Hole-in-the-Wall Gang Camps for kids with cancer. And he will be sending on a jar of honey to me, too. How sweet it is.

So, the lesson: If you want accurate predictions of who will win political races in NJ, stick with Murray. (I predicted Jon Corzine by 3 points).

However, if you wish to predict the winner of any World Series where the Yankees play the Phillies, call me.

If anyone else want to donate to the Hole-in-the-Wall Gang Camps for kids with cancer, go to www.jumpforjoey.org and follow the links.

"A Keg tapped at both ends." Well, it's time to tap back.

So, there you have it:

Cheese Steak vs. Hot Dog. South Bronx vs. South Philly. The Hudson vs. The Delaware. The City That Never Sleeps vs. The City of Brotherly Love. The Statue of Liberty vs. The Liberty Bell. Philadelphia Daily News vs. The New York Daily News.

Where WC Fields once said, “I once spent a year in Philadelphia, I think it was on a Sunday. ” And Jay Leno once said, “The crime problem in New York is getting really serious. The other day the Statue of Liberty had both hands up. ”

And just where is New Jersey with all of this? Just as Ben Franklin said, “A keg tapped at both ends”.

Well, it’s time to tap back.

What state will NY Yankees fans and Phillies fans have to pass through? Us. What roads will they have to travel on to get to their respective stadiums between now and next weekend? Ours. Which bathrooms will they be using if they drink too beer much at a game? Which gas stations will they use to fill up their tanks? Ours, that’s whose. Forget ‘Pay to Play’:

New Rule: “Pay to Pass Through.”

Set up EZPass to detect the Phillies ‘P’ and the Yankees ‘NY’ and quadruple the tolls. Charge them to use the bathrooms. If a Yankees and/or Phillies fans stops here for gas, charge’em a ‘pump your own gas’ surcharge. If they stop to eat in a NJ restaurant, add a World Series travel fee.

We have state debt in New Jersey, and now’s our shot to have help from Yankees and/or Phillies fans pay it down.

So, raise your beer to Ben Franklin: He had the right idea. He was just a century or two too early. And just had no way to pay for it.

(In the interest of complete disclosure, Ben would have most likely been a Phillies fan, where as I am a life-long Yankees fan. Prediction: Yanks in six.)

The House That Ruth Built

In a way it’s ironic, that we are losing “The House That Ruth Built” at about the same time when so many people are losing their homes, too. Oh, well.

There is something about the great cathedral of baseball, Yankee Stadium, which the new stadium could just never have. It will take a while for me to call the new stadium with its luxury boxes, restaurants, shops, excellent site lines 'Yankee Stadium. This is the Stadium where all those 26 World Championships were won. This is where I learned about the world’s greatest sports franchise, the New York Yankees from my dad, Bernie Novick, a Yankee fan.

Today, rather than naming a baseball stadium after the team that plays there, ‘naming rights’ are sold for millions and millions. Stadiums are named after orange juice companies [Minute Maid Park- Houston Astros; Tropicana Field – Tampa Bay Devil Rays] or multi-national banks [PNC Park – Pittsburgh Pirates; Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia Phillies] or world-wide communications companies [AT&T Park - San Francisco Giants; U.S. Cellular - Chicago White Sox]. You need a scorecard just to figure out which ballpark you’re in.

But not at Yankee Stadium. There, the product is written in big blue letters a mile high and two miles wide for all the world to see: Yankee Stadium. Home of the New York Yankees.

The last time I went to Yankee Stadium was two years ago. We arrived too late to see Memorial Field. But not the first time I went…in 1962. Summer, July. A mid- week night game against the old Kansas City Athletics...

It was a night game, and my father was taking me alone. Both of my brothers were in sleep-away camp, and I got to go to my very first baseball game with just my dad. From Brooklyn to Yankee Stadium was a mere 18 miles away. But on the subway, it would almost two hours. I did not care.

Before we left, my father made sure I had my Yankee baseball cap, and glove---because we were going to sit in the ‘best seats at the Stadium’, my father declared, and sure a ball would be hit near there. My mother made sure I had a chicken sandwich for dinner and a sweatshirt in case it got cold. We were on our way.

We took the Gerritsen Avenue bus to the D Train at Avenue U and East 16th Street. But before we went through the subway turnstile, my dad asked me for the chicken sandwich in the brown paper bag. He took it and through it in the trash.

“At Yankee Stadium”, he said, “You have hot dogs for dinner, not a chicken sandwich.” I was very open to learning all about baseball protocol. “But, when we get back home, if mom asks ‘How was the chicken sandwich?’, you need to tell her with a big smile, ‘Boy, that was the best chicken sandwich I ever had!’ ”. So, I was tuned in to our own little subversion of the truth.

And all along the subway ride, my dad made me practice, smiling, rubbing my stomach and saying, “Boy, mom, that was the best chicken sandwich I ever had!”. I had to sound convincing. The D train went all the way from Brooklyn, right to Yankee Stadium. The subway got more and more crowded as we traveled through Brooklyn, through mid-town Manhattan, and on in to the Bronx. And I kept on practicing. It made the subway ride fun.

We arrived for a 8 o’clock game at about six thirty, to catch batting practice. As we exited the subway at 161st Street in the Bronx, I could see the Stadium in the distance. The streets were packed with people of all shapes, sizes, and colors all walking to the Stadium. We crossed many streets, and the Stadium got larger and larger. “We have the best seats in the house,” my dad proudly declared.

We took the escalator up and up. As we got to the first level, I asked, “Are our seats here?”. “Nope, our seats are much better than these,” my dad called out over the buzz of the crowd. We went up one more level. “What about here? Are these our seats?” “Nope, even better than this. We have the best seats in the Stadium,” my dad said again, very proudly. Finally, after three more levels, we finally got up to the highest level inn the Stadium.

As we walked through the tunnel from the escalator to the seats, I could see the greenest green of the grass in the outfield, the brownest brown of the infield dirt, and the bluest blue of the sky.

And there they were: The New York Yankees taking batting practice. Number 7, Mickey Mantle. Number 8, Yogi Berra. And Roger Maris, Number 9. We walked up a steep set of steps, to just five rows from the top, just behind the first base side.

“These are our seats? All the way up here?,” I asked somewhat incredulously. “Of course, these are the best seats. You can see the whole Stadium from here. You can see the people on the roof tops watching the game. This is where the real fans sit….but, if you want to sit down there…” he seemed to say derisively, “we can save money and get cheaper seats…”. “No!,” I protested, “Let’s stay here---in the good seats.”

“Now, you can have as many hot dogs as you want. But remember, when mom asks, what do you say?” asked, prompting me again. “I give her a big smile, and say ‘Boy, that was the best chicken sandwich I ever had!’”.

We stood for the Star Spangled Banner, and I stayed standing until every Yankee was
announced as they took the field. I will never forget that booming voice, welcoming everyone to Yankee Stadium, and telling everyone that any reproduction of the game broadcast without the written permission of the New York Yankees was not permitted. That seemed like a good idea, but I was only eight and no plans to broadcast the game on my own anyway.

My dad explained to me how to keep score. That the flags on the Stadium roof showed us what place the Yankees and all the other teams were in. How the people on the nearby roof tops could watch the game for free. And taught me how to call out to the guys carrying food, so that they would hear me and walk up all those steps just to sell me a hot dog.

First inning, one hot dog, one soda. I found it amazing that people would just bring food directly to you. Third inning, the same. As Yogi popped up a foul ball, I got some ice cream. After a Maris single in the sixth, popcorn.

After the seventh inning stretch, another hot dog. At the end of the top of eighth, Cracker Jacks, and I was done. More than full. By the end of the game, I was stuffed. And my dad still made me practice, with a big smile, ‘Boy, that was the best chicken sandwich I ever had!’.

The game ended [Yankees 7, KC 2] and the blue July sky turned darker, and darker and finally we walked to the subway, and caught the D train back to Brooklyn. For a good portion of the way, we had to stand, but that was OK. The rest of the way home, I sat on my dad’s lap, asleep. We finally arrived home with my mother waiting for us at the door.

“So, how was the game?” she asked. “It was great!” I told her a series of disconnected facts about the game. About the subway ride. About the great seats we had. About the Stadium. “So, how was the chicken sandwich?”, she asked. Here was my big chance. My father looked at me. I looked at him. “Boy, that was the best chicken sandwich I ever had!”, I said proudly, rubbing my stomach. My dad smiled back. Success. We had fooled her.

“And how many hot dogs did you have?”, she asked. “Three!” came out the number, before I realized I had been found out. We did not practice that question! She looked at my dad, and he looked at me.

And so, Yankee Stadium, “The House That Ruth Built”, the green, green grass where Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jo DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Thurman Munson, Bobby Murcer, Ron Guidry, Reggie Jackson, Don Mattingly, Derek Jeter, and so many others played for the greatest team in the world ----and called 'home' ----is no more.

Thanks, dad for taking me to my first baseball game there. And thanks, mom, for the chicken sandwich.

JOE TORRE FOR PRESIDENT

Say it ain’t so, Joe. Say it ain’t so.

Joe and the Yankees: It ain’t so. No more Joe.

Now, it’s no insult to offer a man five million dollars to run a baseball team. For a man in Joe’s position, it was no great honor either.

Last year he made 7.5 million. He was offered a 1/3 pay cut. For what? For leading the Yankees to their 13th consecutive post-season appearance? For taking the Yankees from the bottom of the division at 21-29 to the playoffs? He will be high on the list for Manager of the Year.

But as I say, it’s the Yankees loss, and, maybe, just maybe, the country’s gain.

So, I nominate Joe Torre for President. That’s right: Put Yankee pinstripes on the White House.

And why not? Certainly he can do a better job than Chimpy McFlightsuit.

And, it seems to me that Joe Torre possesses the very qualities needed to shape up and lead our nation.

He knows how to put together a good team ---the right people for the right job. When he came on in 1998, he brought Don Zimmer, Mel Stottlemeyer and Willie Randolph to help him coach. He brought in Don Mattingly for a hitting coach.

Foreign relations experience? You bet. He’s had to manage Hideki Matsui from Japan. Jorge Posada from Santurce, Puerto Rico. Chien-Ming Wang from Tainan, Taiwan. And A-Rod from Ego-Land.

On the job experience: He’s held office for twelve years ---much longer than most world leaders.

Domestic relations? He has successfully dealt with teams from Boston, Chicago, and Cleveland. He has had to deal with his own Chairman of the Board.

Can he deal with ‘hostile enemy combatants’ ? Have you ever been to bat day at Yankee Stadium during a Red Sox series? In the Bronx, no less? There’s some real hostile fans there. Torre is Mr. Cool all the time.

And what president has ever had to deal with the likes of George Steinbrenner? He’s more like Saddam Hussein than Saddam Hussein is.

Communication skills: While in office, President Bush has given the fewest number of press conferences of any president in recent years. Joe Torre holds a press conference practically after each and every game, win or lose.

No Press Secretary. No spin. No retractions. No post-press conference press releases explaining what he meant to say. It’s just Joe and the camera.

So, we need to pinstripe the White House.

He has done his job quietly, confidently, and successfully for twelve seasons. Ten division titles. Four World Series. And one over the New York Mets, too.

In the twelve years before Joe arrived:

There were nine managers, with Billy Martin and Lou Pinella having repeat runs.

World Series titles: Zero
American League Pennants: Zero
Division Titles: Zero

So, who can take Torre’s place? I know there is talk about Mattingly, Joe Gerardi, Bobby Valentine, Tony Larusso. All good choices for various reasons.

But I have my own suggestions for the Steinbrenner clan:

George W. Bush. Yes, Bush.

On the plus side: He goes to his Right very well. And he speaks funnier than Casey Stengel and Yogi Berra put together. And he was the owner of the Texas Rangers. Could be a great punching bag for the New York sports press. Will need a job come 1-20-09.
On the minus side: When he owned the Rangers, he traded Sammy Sosa. And he's not very bright.

Rudy Giuliani:

Upside: If he loses the Republican nomination, he could be ready to take the helm by the spring of 2008. He’s used to the New York press corps, and may have the guts to deal with Steinbrenner. Knows how to get to Yankee Stadium by subway, if he needs to.
Downside: He recently stated he's rooting for the Red Sox in the World Series.

Jay Leno:

Upside: Rumored to be leaving the Tonight Show in 2009, so he might be available. No real experience in baseball, but grew up in Boston watching the Sox lose. Has his own fleet of cars, any of which can be used to drive relief pitchers in from the bullpen. Can warm up the crowd with a great ten minutes, while the pitcher warms up, too.
Downside: May be too likable to be a baseball manager in NYC.

Yogi Berra:

Lives near by in Montclair; certainly has the experience and might still have an old uniform or two lying around in his house. Maybe he can catch a game or two if Posada needs a rest.

The Fans themselves:

Maybe Steinbrenner can save some money by going a season without a manager. Give the fans at the stadium and at home on the web the ability to make all the calls themselves. When a pitching change is needed, ask the fans to vote online. Certainly the technology is there. When a steal is needed or there a sacrifice bunt, go to the web.

So, it goes.

Ballgame over. Joe Torre over. The fans lose. The Yankees lose.

Magic Words in Boston: Bill Buckner/Bucky Dent

We decided at the very last minute to spend some holiday time in Cape Cod. I have run in to any number of Red Sox fans, while here.

On our drive up, these same fans were crowding I-95 up through Connecticut, on their way back from seeing the Yankees beat the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees are just five games back after taking three straight from the Sox in New York. Not bad, but still not there. If the Sox were truly dominant, they could have taken three straight instead of dropping three straight. Then the Yankee season would have been over as they would have fallen 11 games back.

So, I arrive in Cape Cod from New Jersey full of glee at seeing vacationing residents of Boston with their families. I choose to speak to them now and then, letting them know I am a Yankee fan. They hit me back with a ‘2004’ reference.

I strike back with the ultimate 1-2 punch: “Bucky Dent. Bill Buckner”.

They cower away in anger, frustration, and fear ----knowing that the massive hand of history is not on their side.

It works like magic. And now let’s hope the Yankees work their magic, too.

What I learned on my summer vacation.

Just got back late last night from our summer vacation in Florida. Yes, I know ---‘Florida in the summer?' you must be thinking. Part vacation, part family visit. We also go there during the winter months, too. But it is very hot all the time, although everything
in -doors is so air-conditioned that you can hang frozen beef.

So, I learned the following on my summer vacation:

• Don’t try to get a hotel in the middle of the summer anywhere near Atlantic City without a reservation. Everything was more than sold out. Hotel after hotel had lines of people waiting to be told the same thing: No Vacancy. Note to hotels on Black Horse Pike: Invest in a sign that can be lit up to read “No Vacancy”.

• Florida has outstanding services for senior citizens. Businesses really seem to need to learn how to cater to that demographic, or they simply cannot survive economically. New Jersey communities can learn from their lesson.

• The fresh water conservation issues in New Jersey dwarf ours. They have to pull water out of the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee, the freshwater lake in the center of Florida. It is the second-largest freshwater lake wholly within the continental United States, second only to Lake Michigan.

• Our property tax issues dwarf their property tax issues. But their school system ranks somewhere between 39 and 47 in the nation, depending on which list you use. Ours are ranked somewhere around 4th or so.

• Florida newspapers really do not care much about what happens to the New York Yankees, or the fact that they are now five games back, or that they have a better record than the Mets. However, perfectly good Yankee and Met fans from New York moved to Florida and now root for the "Florida Marlins", a team named for a fish. Hard to wrap my brain around that.

• It is very easy to find your way around south east Florida. East is to the beach. West is not. Guess it’s the same in New Jersey, though, now that I think of it.

• They have tolls in Florida, too.

• Disney World is larger than Great Adventure.

• New Jersey bagels are better than Florida bagels. We have better pizza, too.
  

• But their beaches are free. Our's should be, too.